Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.325110 6.348444 7.481425 8.824066 10.366709 12.078513 14.116408
2025-02-23 3.487613 4.766211 6.345863 8.418774 11.042544 14.226473 18.352611
2025-03-02 2.377987 3.679400 5.452125 7.991867 11.476728 16.023093 22.322395
2025-03-09 1.772706 3.063817 4.979174 7.935673 12.272197 18.269861 27.030843
2025-03-16 1.334159 2.559534 4.526879 7.775074 12.828161 20.178634 31.408455
2025-03-23 1.131445 2.372408 4.501137 8.215046 14.272154 23.441299 37.947522
2025-03-30 0.922787 2.115434 4.299583 8.319284 15.176743 25.952852 43.562360
2025-04-06 0.750116 1.877370 4.076817 8.335496 15.912660 28.237358 48.980892
2025-04-13 0.610342 1.665980 3.856672 8.309199 16.550846 30.392429 54.329826
2025-04-20 0.561569 1.641098 3.991102 8.947603 18.399576 34.657167 63.342262
2025-04-27 0.487424 1.535553 3.938892 9.212997 19.592943 37.899045 70.879893
2025-05-04 0.430745 1.457385 3.928932 9.555219 20.951955 41.511613 79.253830
2025-05-11 0.355019 1.308849 3.741579 9.521739 21.625982 44.034652 86.056193
2025-05-18 0.278621 1.131464 3.450175 9.222281 21.749148 45.587345 91.304450
2025-05-25 0.212910 0.959584 3.131594 8.806771 21.582214 46.581035 95.618021
2025-06-01 0.174493 0.862360 2.984190 8.762155 22.175994 49.041616 102.733720
2025-06-08 0.139382 0.760552 2.798969 8.593181 22.476707 50.948185 108.932381
2025-06-15 0.127916 0.747570 2.868627 9.074293 24.259867 55.891594 121.114300
2025-06-22 0.108979 0.693731 2.801657 9.188526 25.217581 59.234262 130.413185
2025-06-29 0.091073 0.634964 2.704688 9.206452 25.950801 62.163491 139.069502
2025-07-06 0.075352 0.577557 2.597421 9.177932 26.567700 64.887193 147.465447
2025-07-13 0.073005 0.590449 2.736991 9.872478 28.997426 71.573217 164.054964
2025-07-20 0.064833 0.566022 2.737475 10.161027 30.451070 76.260133 176.854311